2019 NHL Draft Profile #2- Jacob Roach
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| (Photo Credit: BP Sports Niagara) |
Ed. Note: With the 2019 NHL Draft just weeks away, all of my posts in the month of June will be focused on unranked yet intriguing prospects eligible to be selected in Vancouver later this month.
Jumping from British Columbia to Ontario in our hunt for under-the-radar draft eligibles, just one year ago, high-scoring center Jacob Roach was ready to quit hockey. What brought him back from the brink, and what makes him a potential sleeper for this year's draft? Read on to find out.
Jumping from British Columbia to Ontario in our hunt for under-the-radar draft eligibles, just one year ago, high-scoring center Jacob Roach was ready to quit hockey. What brought him back from the brink, and what makes him a potential sleeper for this year's draft? Read on to find out.
Pretend for a moment you're the head scout of an NHL team. During year-end meetings, one of your subordinates excitedly proclaims that they've found a player who can score 50 points next year. No, not 50 points in the best league in the world -- 50 points in the OHL. This particular player spent 2018-19 in Junior B, with no major junior experience to date.
If the player in question isn't a defender, you might be tempted to fire that scout then and there. After all, countless prospects have scored 50 or more points for a CHL team in their draft year, only to be passed over. Why waste even a seventh rounder on a player whose best-case development scenario may well leave him short of that mark next season?
Let's park that thought experiment for a moment. For Greater Ontario Junior Hockey League (GOJHL) star Jacob Roach, imagining a future in hockey was a struggle even one year ago. As BP Sports Niagara outlined in a wonderful piece on him last fall, the former Sudbury draft pick was the very last cut from Wolves training camp heading into the 2018-19 season.
Unable to juggle his studies at Brock University with the rigorous travel of Junior A, Roach came close to retiring from hockey altogether. At the last minute, the GOJHL's St. Catharines Falcons offered him a roster spot and the chance to put school first thanks to the league's short schedule. Roach eagerly accepted, and proved a dominant force from day one:
Let's park that thought experiment for a moment. For Greater Ontario Junior Hockey League (GOJHL) star Jacob Roach, imagining a future in hockey was a struggle even one year ago. As BP Sports Niagara outlined in a wonderful piece on him last fall, the former Sudbury draft pick was the very last cut from Wolves training camp heading into the 2018-19 season.
Unable to juggle his studies at Brock University with the rigorous travel of Junior A, Roach came close to retiring from hockey altogether. At the last minute, the GOJHL's St. Catharines Falcons offered him a roster spot and the chance to put school first thanks to the league's short schedule. Roach eagerly accepted, and proved a dominant force from day one:
| Secret Scout Profile | |
|---|---|
| Name: | Jacob Roach |
| Ht/Wt: | 5'11, 190 lbs |
| Position: | C/LW |
| 2018-19 Team: | St. Catharines Falcons (GOJHL) |
| 2018-19 Stats: | 47 GP, 29-64-93, 84 PIM |
Fourth league-wide in points and fifth in assists, Roach would also finish as St. Catharines' top scorer and MVP. It was likely the kind of year Roach envisioned when he told BP Sports last September he intended to be a "force" in the league. On December 27th, Roach cemented himself as one to watch when he was chosen for the GOJHL Top Prospects Game.
But Roach's breakout year wasn't finished quite yet. Opening the 2018-19 GOJHL playoffs against the Welland Canadiens, Roach and the Falcons would make their Sutherland Cup aspirations clear with a 7-1 win -- one in which Roach netted four points. The series would be a short-lived one, as Roach would add five assists in Game 4 to secure the sweep.
But Roach's breakout year wasn't finished quite yet. Opening the 2018-19 GOJHL playoffs against the Welland Canadiens, Roach and the Falcons would make their Sutherland Cup aspirations clear with a 7-1 win -- one in which Roach netted four points. The series would be a short-lived one, as Roach would add five assists in Game 4 to secure the sweep.
Over the next month, Roach would continue to score at an impressive clip; in addition to another five-point game, he would rack up three more four-point games as St. Catharines went all the way to the Golden Horseshoe Conference Finals. Although the Falcons would bow out in seven games, it was no fault of Roach's, who netted 43 points in 17 total games.
Despite their hard-fought loss, the St. Catharines social media folks were quick to celebrate Roach for his post-season accomplishments -- and how it almost didn't even happen:
Despite their hard-fought loss, the St. Catharines social media folks were quick to celebrate Roach for his post-season accomplishments -- and how it almost didn't even happen:
After the Falcons elimination, and three games in to the @GOJHL #SutherlandCupFinals, @jacobroach73 still leads the province in points. Not bad for a lad who wasn't sure if he wanted to play hockey this past season. #Battler #Reborn #RealDeal pic.twitter.com/y7MrSLQtaK— StCatharines Falcons (@StCathFalcons) April 16, 2019
So let's return to the thought exercise above. You have a player who has amassed a whole lot of points, but at a level below most of his peers. How can we put Roach's season into perspective?
While some statistical approaches exist to project production between leagues- like the seminal NHLe- most only account for a player debuting at the National Hockey League level. None care to project what a GOJHL player might have scored in major junior. Thankfully, history provides us with a useful- and flattering- comparable.
The GOJHL is not known for cranking out NHL talent; Daultan Leveille is the league's only first rounder of the modern era, going 29th overall in 2008 to Atlanta. A Falcons alum himself, that Leveille played less than 25 games in the AHL during his brief pro career has likely played a role in teams shying away from the GOJHL- and Junior B overall- since then.
However, there's no denying the league has been a stop over the years for young players on their way to bigger and better things. While most did so a year or two before they were draft-eligible- Mark Scheifele, Adam Henrique and Steve Mason come to mind in recent times- one current NHLer and Stanley Cup champ spent their entire draft season in the GOJHL.
While some statistical approaches exist to project production between leagues- like the seminal NHLe- most only account for a player debuting at the National Hockey League level. None care to project what a GOJHL player might have scored in major junior. Thankfully, history provides us with a useful- and flattering- comparable.
The GOJHL is not known for cranking out NHL talent; Daultan Leveille is the league's only first rounder of the modern era, going 29th overall in 2008 to Atlanta. A Falcons alum himself, that Leveille played less than 25 games in the AHL during his brief pro career has likely played a role in teams shying away from the GOJHL- and Junior B overall- since then.
However, there's no denying the league has been a stop over the years for young players on their way to bigger and better things. While most did so a year or two before they were draft-eligible- Mark Scheifele, Adam Henrique and Steve Mason come to mind in recent times- one current NHLer and Stanley Cup champ spent their entire draft season in the GOJHL.
In the fall of 2011, the hockey world at large had never heard of Tanner Pearson; an OHL rookie during the 2010-11 season, his 42 points in 66 games for Barrie were considered underwhelming for a teen their first time through the NHL Draft -- never mind a 19-year-old on his second try. Like Roach, Pearson was unsure what his hockey future held.
By the end of the 2011-12 season, though, Pearson would feature prominently on nearly ever draft list; scoring 91 points in just 60 games for the Colts, his out-of-nowhere surge would captivate not just Ontario but the nation. Having never before represented his home country, Pearson would suit up for Canada at the 2012 World Juniors in Edmonton, winning Bronze.
Although a broken leg forced him to miss the OHL playoffs, Pearson capped off his breakout year by becoming the 30th overall pick at the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Pearson would of course go on to play in the NHL, becoming an important depth piece for the Los Angeles Kings -- especially en route to their second-ever Stanley Cup championship in 2014.
Now just shy of 400 career games, Pearson has no doubt covered the bet as a first round pick. But where was he in 2009, the year he was first eligible for the Draft? You guessed right -- the GOJHL.
As an 18-year-old, Pearson was considered the furthest thing from a legitimate NHL prospect; twice cut by Barrie- sound familiar?- leading up to his draft year, the former 14th-round OHL Priority Selection pick spent the entire 2009-10 season in Junior B, registering 70 points in 51 games to go along with a respectable 16 points in 11 playoff games.
By the end of the 2011-12 season, though, Pearson would feature prominently on nearly ever draft list; scoring 91 points in just 60 games for the Colts, his out-of-nowhere surge would captivate not just Ontario but the nation. Having never before represented his home country, Pearson would suit up for Canada at the 2012 World Juniors in Edmonton, winning Bronze.
Although a broken leg forced him to miss the OHL playoffs, Pearson capped off his breakout year by becoming the 30th overall pick at the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Pearson would of course go on to play in the NHL, becoming an important depth piece for the Los Angeles Kings -- especially en route to their second-ever Stanley Cup championship in 2014.
Now just shy of 400 career games, Pearson has no doubt covered the bet as a first round pick. But where was he in 2009, the year he was first eligible for the Draft? You guessed right -- the GOJHL.
As an 18-year-old, Pearson was considered the furthest thing from a legitimate NHL prospect; twice cut by Barrie- sound familiar?- leading up to his draft year, the former 14th-round OHL Priority Selection pick spent the entire 2009-10 season in Junior B, registering 70 points in 51 games to go along with a respectable 16 points in 11 playoff games.
Putting them head-to-head brings to mind our thought experiment again; indeed, Pearson's Draft+1 season was also nothing to write home about -- save to prove he could play in major junior:
| Secret Scout Head-to-Head | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Tanner Pearson | Jacob Roach |
| Draft Year | 51 GP, 29-41-70 (Jr. B) | 47 GP, 29-64-93 (Jr. B) |
| D+1 | 66 GP, 15-27-45 (OHL) | ? (OHL) |
| D+2 | 90 GP, 37-54-91 (OHL) | ? |
| D+3 | 64 GP, 19-28-47 (AHL) | ? |
The big question, of course, is whether or not Roach is capable of passing that crucial test. At least one OHL team thinks so; released by Sudbury to start the year, on April 26th, Guelph Storm GM and former NHL coach George Burnett signed Roach to a Standard Player Agreement for the 2019-20 season, describing him as a "very versatile" player.
Although Burnett's response was as boilerplate as his Roach's contract, the person responsible for bringing him to the attention of the OHL in the first place- then-Sudbury Wolves General Manager Barclay Branch- said the following in 2017 about his team's Priority Selection pick:
But the platitudes don't stop there; his Midget AAA coach once described how Roach could "control a game" with his puck possession skills, while St. Catharines GM Frank Girhiny spoke before the season of his "off the charts" hockey.
Are the aforementioned quotes too good to be true? If not, how could a player with such gifts be cut not once but twice from an OHL roster?
The above anecdotes certainly account for some of what made Roach successful with the Falcons; while he suffered from a bout of low confidence heading into the year, you wouldn't know it from the way he played even in September with his new team. A commanding presence who starred on the first line and top powerplay unit right out of the gate, Roach certainly did not lack in opportunities to make an impact.
Capable of generating tremendous power from his wide, well-balanced skating base, even 21-year-old men struggled to contain Roach in the GOJHL this past year. His puck protection skills are a standout overall; capable of dropping his shoulder and barreling into and out of traffic unscathed with the puck, his cycle game proved especially potent on the man advantage, where he amassed 23 of his 64 assists.
Those same traits made Roach a standout on St. Catharines' top two penalty killing units; able to eat up time by hemming the puck deep in the offensive zone, if the GOJHL tracked penalties drawn, Roach would likely have been a league leader in that category due to the number of trips, hooks and slashes dished his way as he fought to keep possession.
But beyond his physical gifts, what makes Roach an intriguing prospect is his combination of top-notch hockey sense and an uncanny ability to dish hard, fast, pro-quality passes. Looping the zone like a Harlem Globetrotter, Roach would often lure backcheckers to him like a magnet before making a perfect cross-seam pass- a big reason for his 94 total regular season and playoff assists in 2018-19.
So, what about his weaknesses? Surely a player relegated to Junior B has to have a couple -- right?
Well, if you look closely at Branch's quotes, there is a propensity to describe Roach's abilities from the perspective of force and strength -- instead of, say, speed and skill. It's certainly no coincidence, as it is those very areas- skating and stickhandling- that Roach will need to improve substantially in to have success at the next level.
Challenged to improve his first step since Bantam, Roach requires more runway than most top-six forwards in order to get moving. His lateral quickness and footwork also demand improvement; too often, Roach uses his wide stance as a crutch, where more agile teammates would execute a quick cut or turn off their edges to move the same distance in half the time.
The same applies to his puck skills; an above-average stickhandler and shooter when given time and space, precious little of either exists in major junior -- let alone the NHL. Thus, working with a skills coach to develop a softer and smoother touch would likely be a worthy investment, and make Roach a more unpredictable offensive threat.
The good news is that neither deficiency is impossible to overcome; in fact, Roach's strengths and weaknesses are such that one would not be wrong to consider him more "pro-ready" than most project prospects. A trusted penalty killer since minor hockey, that Roach has been a reliable all-situations contributor at every level bodes well for his future.
This brings us full-circle to our thought experiment. A unique case of immense potential forced at least one level below where they belong, Roach is nevertheless a higher risk than most prospects taken in any given NHL draft -- and that's saying something for a league that has plucked players from China and Great Britain in recent years.
However, can the level of risk be quantified? After all, if you asked NHL GMs whether they would have preferred taking Pearson in the seventh round of the 2010 or 2011 Drafts as opposed to using a first rounder on him in 2012, the answer would likely be unanimous. Since time travel isn't an option, can we somehow determine what his production might be?
While machine learning has been in vogue as of late, yours truly decided to stick with good old-fashioned statistical analysis. By feeding the D and D+1 production of every player to jump from the GOJHL to the OHL during their D+1 season into a linear regression model, we can hopefully come up with something that gives us a hint as to Roach's future.
For all your graph lovers out there, here's the output:
For everyone else, the associated linear equation is:
ลท = 0.60064X - 0.51867
Plug 1.98- Roach's points-per-game this season with St. Catharines- into the above equation, and what do you get? 0.46. Over your standard 68-game OHL season, that comes out to 45(.5) points. Who else amassed a similar amount in their D+1 year? You got it -- Twice-passed-over GOJHL alum and Stanley Cup champion Tanner Pearson.
While this kind of amateur-ish statistical analysis is certainly not a guarantee of anything, it suggests that a scout pushing Roach's name as a late pick in this year's draft would not be out of line (pun fully intended, no apologies rendered). After that, it's up to the player to prove that they were worthy of the selection -- something all draft choices have in common.
So yes, the odds that Roach becomes even a pro hockey player are low. There is no way to state with certainty how the next few months and years will unfold. However, that it's even a possibility at all is a far better outlook than most prospects ever have -- even more so for a player who didn't envision a future in hockey just ten months ago.
Although Burnett's response was as boilerplate as his Roach's contract, the person responsible for bringing him to the attention of the OHL in the first place- then-Sudbury Wolves General Manager Barclay Branch- said the following in 2017 about his team's Priority Selection pick:
| Secret Scout Quote of the Day | |
|---|---|
| “He’s a strong skater, he’s strong on the puck, he pursues pucks when he doesn’t have (it) and he can be a very difficult guy to play against, because he’s got a very strong work ethic and his compete level is very high.” -Then-Sudbury Wolves GM Barclay Branch on 2019 Draft-eligible forward Jacob Roach (Source: The Sudbury Star) |
But the platitudes don't stop there; his Midget AAA coach once described how Roach could "control a game" with his puck possession skills, while St. Catharines GM Frank Girhiny spoke before the season of his "off the charts" hockey.
Are the aforementioned quotes too good to be true? If not, how could a player with such gifts be cut not once but twice from an OHL roster?
The above anecdotes certainly account for some of what made Roach successful with the Falcons; while he suffered from a bout of low confidence heading into the year, you wouldn't know it from the way he played even in September with his new team. A commanding presence who starred on the first line and top powerplay unit right out of the gate, Roach certainly did not lack in opportunities to make an impact.
Capable of generating tremendous power from his wide, well-balanced skating base, even 21-year-old men struggled to contain Roach in the GOJHL this past year. His puck protection skills are a standout overall; capable of dropping his shoulder and barreling into and out of traffic unscathed with the puck, his cycle game proved especially potent on the man advantage, where he amassed 23 of his 64 assists.
Those same traits made Roach a standout on St. Catharines' top two penalty killing units; able to eat up time by hemming the puck deep in the offensive zone, if the GOJHL tracked penalties drawn, Roach would likely have been a league leader in that category due to the number of trips, hooks and slashes dished his way as he fought to keep possession.
But beyond his physical gifts, what makes Roach an intriguing prospect is his combination of top-notch hockey sense and an uncanny ability to dish hard, fast, pro-quality passes. Looping the zone like a Harlem Globetrotter, Roach would often lure backcheckers to him like a magnet before making a perfect cross-seam pass- a big reason for his 94 total regular season and playoff assists in 2018-19.
So, what about his weaknesses? Surely a player relegated to Junior B has to have a couple -- right?
Well, if you look closely at Branch's quotes, there is a propensity to describe Roach's abilities from the perspective of force and strength -- instead of, say, speed and skill. It's certainly no coincidence, as it is those very areas- skating and stickhandling- that Roach will need to improve substantially in to have success at the next level.
Challenged to improve his first step since Bantam, Roach requires more runway than most top-six forwards in order to get moving. His lateral quickness and footwork also demand improvement; too often, Roach uses his wide stance as a crutch, where more agile teammates would execute a quick cut or turn off their edges to move the same distance in half the time.
The same applies to his puck skills; an above-average stickhandler and shooter when given time and space, precious little of either exists in major junior -- let alone the NHL. Thus, working with a skills coach to develop a softer and smoother touch would likely be a worthy investment, and make Roach a more unpredictable offensive threat.
The good news is that neither deficiency is impossible to overcome; in fact, Roach's strengths and weaknesses are such that one would not be wrong to consider him more "pro-ready" than most project prospects. A trusted penalty killer since minor hockey, that Roach has been a reliable all-situations contributor at every level bodes well for his future.
This brings us full-circle to our thought experiment. A unique case of immense potential forced at least one level below where they belong, Roach is nevertheless a higher risk than most prospects taken in any given NHL draft -- and that's saying something for a league that has plucked players from China and Great Britain in recent years.
However, can the level of risk be quantified? After all, if you asked NHL GMs whether they would have preferred taking Pearson in the seventh round of the 2010 or 2011 Drafts as opposed to using a first rounder on him in 2012, the answer would likely be unanimous. Since time travel isn't an option, can we somehow determine what his production might be?
While machine learning has been in vogue as of late, yours truly decided to stick with good old-fashioned statistical analysis. By feeding the D and D+1 production of every player to jump from the GOJHL to the OHL during their D+1 season into a linear regression model, we can hopefully come up with something that gives us a hint as to Roach's future.
For all your graph lovers out there, here's the output:
For everyone else, the associated linear equation is:
ลท = 0.60064X - 0.51867
Plug 1.98- Roach's points-per-game this season with St. Catharines- into the above equation, and what do you get? 0.46. Over your standard 68-game OHL season, that comes out to 45(.5) points. Who else amassed a similar amount in their D+1 year? You got it -- Twice-passed-over GOJHL alum and Stanley Cup champion Tanner Pearson.
While this kind of amateur-ish statistical analysis is certainly not a guarantee of anything, it suggests that a scout pushing Roach's name as a late pick in this year's draft would not be out of line (pun fully intended, no apologies rendered). After that, it's up to the player to prove that they were worthy of the selection -- something all draft choices have in common.
So yes, the odds that Roach becomes even a pro hockey player are low. There is no way to state with certainty how the next few months and years will unfold. However, that it's even a possibility at all is a far better outlook than most prospects ever have -- even more so for a player who didn't envision a future in hockey just ten months ago.
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